Views From The Bridge
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Some recent views
February 2008: Debt in the Modern World
‘The problem is the explosive growth of debt in all its forms in most of the developed nations and the overwhelming majority of developing countries. Of course, the existence of debt and the tendency for debt to grow through time are not new. Evidence of legally enforceable contracts in ancient Egypt and Assyria has been found by archaeologists.’ The words of Tim Congdon, a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy committee, have a resonance with a great deal of what we read in the media today...
Read the February 2008 issue in full
November 2007: Alan Greenspan’s The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
Two key rules for anyone retiring from a prominent position in public life are: ‘Nothing is rolled up more quickly than the red carpet’, and, when venturing into print: ‘Get your retaliation in first.’ Regarding the latter, the pre-eminent literary example is the history of the Second World War written by Sir Winston Churchill, which sought to set out for all time the definitive account of the 1939–45 conflict.... Read the November 2007 issue in full
August 2007: Britain Is Simply Not Saving Enough
Saving means different things to different people, so perhaps a few definitions might be helpful. Saving is the act of postponing consumption, so total savings equate to disposable income less consumption. Gross income can be spent, saved or paid in tax.... Read the August 2007 issue in full
May 2007: Equity Analysts in the Spotlight
One of the long-running investment themes at Taylor Young has been that equity markets tend to be well supported by a continuing high level of merger and acquisition activity. Over the past few weeks, this activity - or a perception that activity is imminent - has reached altogether new levels. Rumours of takeover have swirled round a wide variety of the stocks in the FTSE 100 Index... Read the May 2007 issue in full
February 2007: The Predators of Yesteryear
It is almost impossible these days to open a financial newspaper without reading of possible takeover interest from private equity houses or overseas companies for a number of our larger quoted stocks. Since the beginning of last year, Sainsbury has been the most prominent potential target for these buyout funds, although only a few weeks ago Pearson, the diversified media group, was also the subject of such attention. ... Read the February 2007 issue in full
November 2006: Investment In Real Estate Companies
This is the text of an address given by Nick Rundle at the Taylor Young Investment Conference on November 8th 2006.
As you know, at Taylor Young we are thematic investors - we believe that by identifying investment themes and investing in companies relevant to those themes we should be able, over the medium term, to outperform market indices. ... Read the November 2006 issue in full
August 2006: I’ll Be Back
"We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that this option no longer exists and, insofar as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy followed by higher inflation as the next step."
The sombre words of James Callaghan to the Labour Party Conference thirty years ago this autumn marked.. Read the August 2006 issue in full
May 2006: JK Galbraith and ‘The Conventional Wisdom’
Following the recent death of J K Galbraith at the age of 97 there have been numerous articles in the media setting out his contribution to post-war political and economic science. One of his best known ideas was his concept of the ‘conventional wisdom’ – a short hand way of expressing views which it is unwise to question or fear of being termed unconventional. Cynics have likened this phrase to that of the concept of ‘consensus’ which Margaret Thatcher notably described as a view which nobody entirely believes but with which nobody is prepared to argue ... Read the May 2006 issue in full
February 2006: Whilst everyone else was on holiday
‘Seven Sins of Fund Management: A Behavioural Critique’ was published by James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in November 2005. It encompasses a number of themes that have been discussed in previous editions of A View from the Bridge, adding new perceptions to a number of them. It is perhaps symptomatic of the information overload that is endemic in modern financial markets that this worthy document had somehow burrowed its way down to the bottom of the in-tray; nevertheless, the importance and controversial nature of some of the arguments do, we believe, merit examination, which will in turn make us better at our job of managing investments and increasing the wealth of our clients ... Read the February 2006 issue in full
November 2005: Out of sight, out of mind?
There is a perhaps apocryphal story of a Tokyo-based translation service which, when asked to put the well known English idiom of the title above into Japanese characters, came up with a version which read ‘invisible maniac’. However, there is a serious point here which has some relevance to our job at Taylor Young as investment managers. We have alluded before to the innate and emotional influences that can affect decision making in all walks of life, and not least in financial markets. We were particularly pleased; therefore, to see recently a most interesting piece of empirical research from a well regarded Performance Measurement Company, which examines in detail the concept to which the title of this piece refers ... Read the November 2005 issue in full
August 2005: A View From The Bridge Edition 3
Read the August 2005 issue in full
May 2005: A View From The Bridge Edition 2
Read the May 2005 issue in full
March 2005: A View From The Bridge Edition 1
Read the March 2005 issue in full
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